Iran-Israel-US Conflict

US-Iran Ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz Tensions

OVERVIEW

The United States and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire, brokered primarily by Pakistan, with Iran reportedly agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic. The ceasefire includes a temporary halt to hostilities between the US, Iran, and Israel, though Israel continues operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is excluded from the ceasefire agreement. Iran presented a 10-point plan demanding US troop withdrawal from the Middle East, sanctions relief, reparations, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, which the US considers only partially realistic.

OUTCOME IMPACT ASSESSMENT

  • The ceasefire has temporarily reduced direct hostilities and reportedly will allow limited maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The exclusion of Lebanon from the ceasefire and ongoing Israeli operations there maintain a risk of regional conflict flare-ups.

OUTLOOK

  • Given the ambiguity around the timing of the cessation of fire, the timeline and structure of direct negotiations, and the conflicting US and Iranian proposals for the conditions of a long-term agreement, there remains a credible threat of re-escalation over the coming days, and regional security threats will remain elevated in that time. Even if direct negotiations do proceed on or around 10 April, the ceasefire will likely come under significant pressure during the initial two-week period as both sides are likely to threaten re-escalation in a bid to gain leverage in negotiations.
  • It is plausible that the US and Iran will not be able to come to a mutually acceptable long-term agreement within the initial two-week period and the ceasefire is extended. In this scenario, the risk of re-escalation will rise in the lead-up to the end of the initial two-week ceasefire and remain elevated as the ceasefire is extended and negotiations become more prolonged and fractious.
  • That Israel is currently not a party to the negotiations means unilateral Israeli action regarding Iran, whether in Lebanon, Yemen or elsewhere, will remain a significant risk to the talks and, should a formal truce be reached, to the regional security environment in the coming months.

Breaking Events Activity Since Conditional Ceasefire Announcement

Human-driven Breaking Events Activities in Middle East Region Since 7 April 2026 Announcement of the Conditional US-Iran Ceasefire.

Note: Breaking Events markers are placed at the country level for ease of reading and not reflective of the target or location of reported attacks.